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Profile image for Bruce H Parker

As with any projection, it is important to know the underlying assumptions. In this case it looks like they are using a budget where 50% of the model runs had a temperature increase of less than 1.5DC. Personally, I'd like to to have a better chance (so fewer years until the budget is "used up"). According to the IPCC 1.5DC report (where 150GTCO2 emissions 2018-2020 and 100 GTCO2 from natural feedbacks):

percentile: 33rd 50th 67th

Post 2018 Bdgt 840 580 420 GTO2e

Post 2020 Bdgt 590 330 170 GTO2e

#years left 11.3 6.3 3.3

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