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Profile image for Bruce H Parker

I think he is right about the "renewable delusion" both because of the points that he made and because the fossil fuel industry will be working to keep the "status quo". Unfortunately his "intelligent portfolio-based approach" falls way short of what need to be done to limit the temperature increase to less that 2 decrees C. We need to get used to the idea of living in a much warmer world.

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Profile image for sbanerji@alum.mit.edu

I agree with your last statement that we all have to adjust to warming. But there are huge costs , not just in maintaining health and comfort but adapting to the increase in various activities such as construction, agriculture, industry and not least outdoor activities we enjoy. My take on this story is that the writer who heads a major consulting engineering company thinks it is beyond the capabilities of developing countries to bring down emissions, let alone write off all the fossil fuel resources they have. In some ways , I feel this is an uphill battle. But given collective action it can be addressed significantly. May be we will have to survive with a 3 degrees celsius increase by 2060 even if we hit the net zero targets . The new UNCCC pledges for the Glasgow Conference of Parties will result in a 1% reduction in emissions compared to the 45% needed if these pledges are achieved. But I share my doubts with the writer. Significantly reducing emissions in the USA and EU will not change global mean surface temperature increases as long as other countries don't act. But they are limited by resources, stranded assets and lack of technical knowhow and organizational capabilities. I read this week that the IMF and World Bank have joined together in financing technical assistance programs to support developing countries meet the climate challenge. This will help a great deal. The NDC pledges are not matched by credible action programs. Even companies engage in Green Washing , issuing net zero targets without any concrete plans. May be our group can work with one or two companies to help develop concrete plans to achieve net zero. This will provide the insights into the enormity of the task. Bear in mind that the supply chain of most large firms extend to many suppliers in foreign countries and a comprehensive plan must include these suppliers. Sharing knowledge is critical and I hope MIT faculty members will take up this challenge with interested students.. This should be a great learning experience.

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Profile image for Rick Clemenzi

This analysis is devoid of the realities occurring now already and the very rapidly emerging for Batteries. New solar is starting to go in with Batteries in some cases by default. And the biggest Battery winner for the majority of the grid, Flow Batteries, is just emerging in a meaningful way yet already proven. For example, PV + 4-hours Battery at the same power level is already being built in Los Angles with the contracted wholesale power at USD $0.039/kWh or so. That is WAY below the otherwise marginal power cost for fossil generation.

With all things infrastructure, it is essential not to just look at costs from the last 5 years, but also the cost Now and the costs emerging in the immediate future based on already fully proven technologies. This is fully true for Batteries and even at least Vanadium Flow Battery technologies -- that fully establishes the Renewable Energy revolution now underway.

The article also fully discounts the matters of "Cost of Carbon" which should be pretty obvious in Deli India from an environmental/health point of view!

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Profile image for sbanerji@alum.mit.edu

As a onetime R&D engineer, I have confidence that many difficult technology problems can be solved at a price. And the price is going down as use becomes widespread. But the main issue is motivating people to embrace the innovations which must be within their financial capacity. Transitioning to carbon free energy is critical to keeping any economy going. The annual per capita CO2 generation in India is about 1.6 mmt compared to 16 .2 mmt of the USA. Even with a trebling in electricity demand in India , CO2 generation will be one-third the US level per capita in 2030-35. Electricity demand in a country like India where per capita consumption( based on total consumption across all sectors divided by the population) is about 1100 kwh per year now, is likely to triple by 2035 as incomes increase and more electrical gadgets are purchased. Individual household demand may be half of this, the rest is from the public sector. Contrast this with USA where average per capita consumption is about 7200 kwh and Singapore and Japan at 3700 kwh. This is partly due to smaller size homes . But this says something about energy efficiency of the USA given that most home heating is with natural gas which is not reflected in these numbers. Substantial improvements in energy efficiency can be achieved both through demand and supply side measures. The cost of battery storage is falling rapidly and grid storage capacity in the USA is increasing with new facilities being constructed at the scale of 350 mwh such as the ones in San Diego and Florida. Tesla is planning to install battery storage of 10 gwh in a pilot plant soon with the goal of expanding to 200 gwh. The new Tesla 4680 Bell model battery has a 500% higher energy density than the old model. The new design involving tabless cells and supercharging will increase range significantly. This is absolutely necessary for enabling the transition to net zero in transport by allowing EV trucks. See Tesla Annual Report 2020. About 65% of the electricity consumed in India is generated by thermal power plants, 22% by hydroelectric power plants, 3% by nuclear power plants and rest ( 10%) from other alternate sources like solar, wind, biomass etc. 53.7% of India's total commercial energy demand is met through the country's vast coal reserves. The issue is will battery manufacturers be willing to share the know how with developing countries at low cost for facilitating the achievement of GHG targets? A 50% reduction in emissions is needed by 2030 to maintain the trajectory of limiting the global mean temperature target to below by 2050. Given the challenges in all sectors and particularly in heavy industries, what stepped up actions need to be emphasized? Your observation about the social cost of carbon(SCC) is important. Biden just announced an increase of the SCC from the Trump administration's $1-$7 per ton of CO2 to $51 per ton with the possibility of it increasing to $125/ton. All coal power plants will have to close. However, no programs to create new jobs for the coal miners have been announced. For this is to pass muster, a comprehensive study needs to be initiated examining what is the best strategy for the area and sector's development and what are the new areas where jobs can be created to suit the current labor force as well as new entrants. Coal mining jobs can't be simply replaced with renewable energy jobs.

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Profile image for Rick Clemenzi

With respect, I believe there already are programs to help coal workers transition. This has been going on for years already ... it is just that some are still being delusional and thinking coal use will continue. For example: "Nationally, the Obama administration launched the multi-agency POWER Plus Plan in 2015 to alleviate the economic impacts of the energy transition on coal workers and communities, but some provisions of the plan were never implemented and interagency efforts stalled under the Trump administration." (source: https://www.wri.org/blog/2021/01/clean-energy-transition-fossil-fuel-workers-us).

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