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\ Hope you can help me respond to a friend from junior high who is a climate crisis denier. An MIT professor is cited. The link is here:
How sensitive is the atmosphere?
How sensitive is the atmosphere?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN7YHsokRV4 it's only 11:26 long.
Thanks.
Dave dslesinger@alum.mit.edu
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Don’t believe the video - basically “figures don’t lie but liars figure”. There is enough wrong and misleading information in the video that one should ignore his “thesis”. He relies on outdated reports (generally well before 2018) by known climate change sceptics (and just because their reports get published does not mean their conclusions are correct). And he “cherry picks” his examples. For instance, he mentions the low temperatures for 2012-2018, when various factors moderated the temperature increase (see https://mcusercontent.com/0ebaeb14fdbf5dc65289113c1/images/09f0d13a-9a0f-411b-27bb-a1100639aa08.png ), while the temperatures in the last several year are extraordinarily high for “La Nina” years (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiU6PYHjsGY). Climate scientists expect the average temperature to hit 1.5°C by 2030, when the atmospheric CO2 PPM will be about 440PPM. The formula for climate sensitivity is
Climate Sensitivity = Equilibrium Temperature/(LN(CO2e PPM/278) 1.4426) 2.26 =1.5/(LN(440/278) 1.4426)
If the temperature were to stop increasing at 440 PPM in 2030 (which it won’t), the climate sensitivity would be 2.26 (much higher than that reported in the video, where”1.5” was also touted to the expected value; and a slide that was shown mixed “apples and oranges” by showing a “transient climate sensitivity “ of 1.35). Since there is a large energy imbalance (the Earth receives much more energy than it radiates into space), the climate sensitivity is almost certainly above 2.3 and likely at least 3.
And just look at the damages caused by a 1.1°C change – it’s hard to imagine what changes to expect in 2030 for a 1.5°C change.
I had been unfamiliar with the term, " Climate Sensitivity". Thanks so much for this response I'll need to study.
Hi David, Actuaries determine risk for insurance companies. There is a North American Actuaries Climate index and also one for Australia. They don't have a scientific bias or a political bias, they have a profit bias. Here's a link. https://actuariesclimateindex.org/home/ They estimate a 22%increase in climate risk since 1990.
You might also refer to "New maps of ancient warming reveal strong response to carbon dioxide" https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/new-maps-of-ancient-warming-reveal-strong-response-to-carbon-dioxide/